Gold: Midterm Year Weakness

Benjamin Cowen

Summary

This video provides an update on gold's performance during the current midterm year, explaining why price corrections are typical and expected based on historical seasonal trends. The analyst suggests that while the current drawdown feels intense, gold is performing similarly to previous cycles, projecting a potential market low between July and October. The outlook remains optimistic for a bull market continuation toward the end of the decade, provided that gold can find support. Additionally, the content addresses the ongoing underperformance of silver relative to gold and touches on the upcoming ITC conference.

Chapters

  1. 0:00Introduction to midterm year market analysis
  2. 0:21Seasonality and historical corrections
  3. 0:45Reviewing previous market cycles
  4. 1:28Focusing on timing rather than exact pricing
  5. 1:46Year-to-date ROI comparisons
  6. 3:15Estimating the seasonal low window
  7. 3:37Bull market support band analysis
  8. 4:36Current gold performance metrics
  9. 5:38Silver performance and the ratio
  10. 6:55Silver as a deep value play
  11. 7:21Final conference invitation

Topics covered

  • Midterm Year Seasonality
  • Historical Price Drops

+4 more topics (full content when you follow the channel)

Transcript excerpt

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the heavy metal verse. Today, we're going to talk about gold as it is now trading below 4,000. Um I am going out of town next week, so by the time you watch this video, I'm not really sure exactly where it's going to be trading, but it's around $4,000 um per ounce. And so I just wanted to do an update here. Again, in terms of seasonality, we would expect corrections throughout the midterm year. This is what we talked about going into this year was that we would likely get a sizeable correction in the midterm year for gold. Right now, it's down about 30% or so. Now, in terms of how far it will go down, it's honestly really difficult to know exactly the sort of like the level that it that it will drop. If you look at at the drop we had in 2022, it was about a 22% drop. Um in some of the prior bull markets of the past, uh if you look at like 200…